UPDATE TO THE TRADE REVIEW FORMAT: It has occurred to me, already, that not every trade will necessarily have this clear-cut “risk/reward” component that one might have when one is sayyy trading for Andrew McCutchen so I don’t want to marry these reviews to that format. So these reviews will have a fluid format until otherwise noted. (lolz “fluid”). TWO TRADES TO DISCUSS……
THE (FIRST) TRADE:
The Main Street MooniniteZ trade RP AJ Ramos to the Point Loma X-Rayz for [High Minors] RP Carl Edwards Jr. and SP Jake Odorizzi.
THE MOONINITEZ RETURN:
As someone who knows the MooniniteZ strategy (I AM THE MOONINITEZ STRATEGY) it is easy for me to sit up here and say relatively low risk deal all around, and that’s why it was made with a trusted friend and trade partner. First there’s Carl Edwards Jr. whom presents both no risk and a bit of risk, ALLOW ME TO EXPLAIN. Carl Edwards Jr. pitched 36 pretty good innings in relief in 2016. A quick ESPN search shows this. What some of you may not know is that he also pitched 4.2 MEH innings in 2015. Those innings don’t mean much in the grand scheme of things but they DO mean that the MooniniteZ only have 9.1 innings with Carl Edwards Jr. to determine if he deserves a spot on the major league roster, a spot that would surely require the release of some other major leaguer. If he doesn’t end up pitching high leverage situations and grabbing holds in those first 9.1 innings he is likely released once his minors eligibility expires. But if he DOES seem to be 7th or 8th inning guy then the MooniniteZ end up with a decision to make, possibly as early as late April. Jake Odorizzi is another fairly low risk addition to the MooniniteZ roster, a roster that recently traded away one stud starter and lost another potential stud starter to TJ surgery IN FUCKING MID-FEBRUARY. Odorizzi is not at all expected to earn that “stud” label any time soon, but he is a young pitcher that’s currently around the 50th starting pitcher coming off the board in drafts ’round the country (might talk a little “average draft position” this time around) and he will have an opportunity to stick with the MooniniteZ rotation should he display some consistency. The bottom line here is the MooniniteZ wanted to add a bit of SP depth while also shedding a (major league) reliever and that’s what was done.
THE X-RAYZ RETURN:
AJ Ramos saved 40 games last year for the Marlins, while striking out 10.27 batters per 9 and posting a 2.81 ERA. VERY GOOD NUMBERS, which is why the X-Rayz traded for him and why the closer market may be DEVASTATED by the return the MooniniteZ fetched for the fella. If there’s one thing to be said about that it is that the closer market is much stronger at the trade deadline, fantasy imitates life. If there is a second thing to be said about that it is that the Marlins seemingly HATE AJ Ramos and that has to be mentioned in any potential deals here. The Fish openly courted both Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman all damned offseason, as well as being tied to Raisel Iglesias in trade rumors, and just generally acted like a team that does not at all want AJ Ramos as their closer. In the end they only ended up with Brad fucking Ziegler, but one still must wonder what kind of leash AJ is working with. If he is the closer all year he can flirst with 35+ saves again and great K numbers, if he falters early he can be reduced to a holds guy and concede the closer job to Ziegler or BEARCLAW. But as long as he keeps striking out batters and limiting the earned runs, the X-Rayz should have a roster spot for him in either scenario.
The MOONINITEZ. Mostly because I plan on declaring Lobman a trade loser in just a few brief moments and so I need to declare myself a trade winner just to best prepare for the inevitable retaliation. Really the best player in this trade went to the X-Rayz (UNLESS HE IS TORPEDOED BY WALKS AND/OR DON MATTINGLY), but hey maybe Carl Edwards Jr. continues his 13 K/9 pace and leapfrogs a few relievers to become the Cubs go-to 8th inning guy (must happen in April) or hey maybe Odorizzi makes a LEAP and becomes this generation’s uhhh Jeff Niemann. I WIN.
THE (SECOND) TRADE:
The River City Bad Dudes trade [Low Minors] SP Michael Kopech and [High Minors] OF Hunter Renfroe to the (ugh) Q-Tip City Morning Woodoin for SP Steven Matz and OF Michael Brantley
THE BAD DUDES RETURN:
The Bad Dudes, lead by real life bad dude Mike Lobman, went out and got them some pitching depth is what they did. Steven Matz is a fine player and nobody is denying that, currently around the 37-42 range for SPs coming off the board in these fake news drafts I keep citing. And Michael Brantley USED to be a fine player, which always leads to the assumption he can be one again. Now the risky parts: Matz had a bone spur removed from the elbow last year, which allegedly makes the elbow less stable and more prone to injury in the future. TYPICAL METS AND THEIR PAPER MACHETE PITCHING STAFF. So perhaps slight injury concerns for Matz. YUGE injury concerns for Brantley, who is already getting the “not ready for start of spring training” talk and quite frankly if he never logged a 100 AB season again I don’t think anyone would be too surprised. QUESTIONS.
THE MORNING WOOD RETURN:
Firstly let me just say that I agree that the morning wood logo is terrible and features another team’s player and needs to go. HERE IS A SUGGESTION:
Allllright now that that is taken care of, let’s see what the Morning Wood has got for himself this morning. Firstly there is some powerful wood in the form of Hunter Renfroe, a guy with 95 ABs left before he has to be added to the MW’s major league roster and a guy perfectly capable of hitting like 8 HRs in those 95 ABs. Wouldn’t be badddd production for a minors bat, and the MW can likely plug Renfroe into a utility spot and see what they have over the first month or two there. Hunter was not the headliner for this return however, the headliner being Michael Kopech. Kopech is fairly well-known for folk tales about a 105 mph fastball, but regardless of the veracity of that claim it can be verified that he absolutely dominated High A last year. Dominated to the tune of a 40% K rate (14.19 K/9) and a 2.25 ERA. There are the usual concerns of youthful pitching here, as pitching prospects are always a risk and Kopech did have a 14% walk rate (5.02 BB/9) to go along with the Ks. But the upside is immense here, hence why he was included in the Chris Sale trade, and it isn’t difficult to imagine Kopech dominating in fantasy as soon as 2018. A good piece for a Backyard expansion team that might struggle to contend in its first year, and a great trade chip in the event the MWs find themselves in need of a playoff push in 2017.
The Morning Wooders but of course. It is best to look at this as Matz for Kopech, Brantley for Renfroe. Matz was once ranked as highly as the 13th overall prospect by BA, but that was when he was ALREADY 24 and now he is DAMN NEAR 26 with a loosey goosey elbow. Kopech is not quite 21 and already ranked 37th and throws the ball really fast, simple math says he’s a better bet (and probably up in the majors at age 22 in 2018). Renfroe should never be a strong OBP guy but should be a good bet for 20+ HRs in 2017, whereas I am not yet comfortable giving Brantley 20+ ABs. Seems pretty cut and dry to me folks.