Let’s hop in our way back machine to the night of our league’s LAST EVER DRAFT* before adoption of the dynasty format we are currently feeling our way through.  Spirits were high for a lot of teams, as I imagine even the Padres feel good about their shot in spring training, but perhaps no team’s draft was more hotly anticipated than ROJO’S RESURGENCE.  I can hardly remember the previous team name, other than to recall it was some sort of vague ode to WVU because CERTAIN PEOPLE IN THIS GROUP don’t realize how sad it comes across when you are insanely invested in an alma mater that gave you nothing but a useless degree in return for many thousands of dollars in tuition.  MIKEY T YOU WILL GET YOUR COMEUPPANCE SOON ENOUGH.  Where was I?  Oh yea….  call it clever marketing (waiting until the very last moment for the big reveal on the new name) or clever draft pick hoarding (3 picks in the first round) or some combination thereof, but THE ROOM WAS ABUZZ if my memory serves me correct (it is blurred by alcohol and does not serve me correct).  Rolling out the “Rojo’s Resurgence” name displayed a confidence not seen in its team owner since his TRBA days, where he felt no shame in jumping on free throws even though 8 year old girls likely feel shame jumping on free throws.  And that confidence carried him into his draft.  Let’s troll judge the Resurgence’s draft real quick:

THE GOOD

Johnny Cueto (2nd Rd) –  Cueto was a great get in a very uneven second round, as he threw 5 CGs last year and generally just provided the Resurgence with top notch production from start to finish.

And that’s all for that category.

THE BAD

Shin Soo Choo (4th Rd) – Did not pan out/is old (more on this to come).

Luis Severino (5th Rd) – Did not pan out.

THE PUZZLING

Rojo’s Entire First Round – Back to the old thing for a second.  It is almost like Rojo read some sort of article about ageism in fantasy baseball drafts, or was spending a lot of time contemplating his own ever-present mortality, because he spent a good chunk of this DYNASTY DRAFT picking up folks that are at or near the end of their MLB journey.  Which is very anti-dynasty format on its face.  Obviously this does not apply to his first pick (Hosmer), #whom wouldn’t have been my choice in that spot but hey different strokes different folks I can see where there was some perceived (2nd round) value in there.  However he followed that up with a very productive but very much retiring in the near future Adrian Beltre, and a 31 year old (at the time) who feels more like a 38 year old Matt Kemp.  I DON’T CARE HOW MANY HRs HE HIT.

So that was the Resurgence draft, a mixed bag in the way that everyone’s drafts are mixed bags.  I don’t really want to spend time dissecting his later rounds otherwise I would praise him for drafting Kendy Morales or some shit, but who even knows how long that fat fuck had a spot on the Resurgers.  ANYWHOM one cannot judge the Resurgence’s draft efforts too harshly because LOOK AT THAT START TO THE SEASON.  The Resurgence roared to an 8-2 start and were the darling of power rankings from late April through late June, more than justifying their namesake’s claim of a comeback year afoot.  But then the trouble started:  The Resurgence dropped their next 2, won 1, and then went 0-3-1 over their next four.  I am sure the trade deadline passed at some point during all this calamity.  A 3-2-1 finale to the season was far too mediocre to correct the damage already done to the former top seed, and the Resurgence limped into the playoffs as our #5 seed.  Hold that thought….

At a time when a win now move might have been necessary to right the ship and at least attempt to improve playoff positioning, Rojo’s Resurgence stubbornly held onto certain future assets.  What vague move might I be referencing?  GLAD YOU ASKED…..

ROJO SHOULD HAVE TRADED KYLE SCHWARBER

Kyle Schwarber is a much ballyhooed bat, to be sure, but it is precisely that ballyhoo that could have grabbed Rojo a “win now” haul from a team out of contention.  Also, and this to me is a central issue here, a big part of that ballyhoo relates to the idea that Schwarber’s bat will be utilized at the catcher position in fantasy (historically an offensive wasteland but maybe less so next year GARY SANCHEZ WHAT UP).  Schwarber will in all likelihood have C eligibility in 2017 but followin this season that is decidedly not a certainty.  The man just shredded his knee and there’s a good chance the Cubs decide to never again put that knee in a catcher’s crouch.  Which would make Schwarber a power bat in the corner OF come 2018, i.e. would make him far less valuable than he was in 2016.  Back to taht “win now haul”, perhaps that haul helps Rojo to win a few more of those games down the stretch, yanno in the now.  And then WHO KNOWS maybe Rojo grabs the 4 seed rather than the 5.

Which brings us back to our held thought:  The Resurgence valiantly played our eventual league champions to a tie in Round 1, and that in itself would probably be Rojo’s justification for holding onto the Kyle Schwarbers of the world.  HOWEVER it is my thesis that with some different win now-ish pieces maybe they pull ahead in one more category OR with some different win now-ish pieces maybe they are the 4 seed to the OGTFC’s 5 seed.  Usually I have to work harder to justify attempting to manage not just my own damn team in these pieces, but here THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR:  Rojo done goofed.

And now to loosely tie this critique to the title that claimed it would be mostly about exploring a team name.  There was a lot to love about the Rojo’s Resurgence team name; undoubtedly Rojo resurged a bit, at least in the first half of the season.  But a refusal to push all his chips in the middle in the second half, coupled with a holds only bullpen strategy (that I didn’t even ADDRESS here because it would add another 1000 words) eventually lead to the narrowest (and therefore easiest to critique) of first round exits.  Dare I claim, because nobody can ever fact check it, that there has never been a more egregious example of a team DESPERATELY needing to make a move to stop a slide and having a pretty obvious move to make and failing to make it.  There I claimed it, on the internet, where things are written in permanent ink.

I have no choice but to recommend that the 2017 incarnation of Rojo’s franchise be renamed “Rojo’s MEH That Was Good Enough.”

Few rookies, if any, have ever had a start to their major league careers quite as scintillating as Trevor Story’s.  Few league owners, if any, defend their players (sometimes to the point of delusion) with the fervor that Barnegat Banana Slugs owner Brian Smith will defend his players with (see:  Jose Bautista chat discussion from yesterday).  I think you see where this is going…..

WHY TREVOR STORY WILL HAVE TO REGRESS AND WHY BRIAN SMITH WILL HAVE TO MAKE PEACE WITH THAT¹:  INTRODUCTION

Trevor Story began his big league career with a 2 HR day back on April 4th, 2016.  He would follow this with a home run on April 5th, another home run on April 6th, and finally another 2 HR day on April 8th (setting a record as the first player to ever homer in his first four games.  Young Trevor finally took a day off from hitting a HR on 4/9, before again blasting one on 4/10 (setting a record for most HRs in a team’s first 6 games of the season).  A LEGEND WAS BORN, and Banana Slugs owner Brian Smith was his typically humble self when discussing said legend.  Ultimately Story would end up hitting 10 HRs in April (tying a rookie record for the most HRs in April) and would keep up a pretty torrid pace throughout the season until a thumb injury cut said season short on August 2nd.  Now I am here TO POINT OUT THE OBVIOUS, that this was an unrepeatable performance and that regression shall come for thee, Trevor Story.  Oh yes it shall come for thee.   

¹Readers may note that this is arguably the second installment in our Brian Bait Series, an unofficial sub-series to the 2017 Troll Series.

WHY TREVOR STORY WILL HAVE TO REGRESS AND WHY BRIAN SMITH WILL HAVE TO MAKE PEACE WITH THAT:  METHODS

All date herein has been pulled from http://www.fangraphs.com and interpreted by the Main Street MooniniteZ Scouting/Stating the Obvious Department.  I will not be citing these works professionally because I don’t miss being in school quite THAT much (probably not at all actually).

WHY TREVOR STORY WILL HAVE TO REGRESS AND WHY BRIAN SMITH WILL HAVE TO MAKE PEACE WITH THAT:  RESULTS

Trevor Story 2016 ISO (slugging percentage – average):  .292

Trevor Story Previous Career High ISO:  .250 (across 218 plate appearances, Rockies A+ ball 2014)

Trevor Story 2016 BABIP:  .343

Trevor Story 2016 K% (Strikeouts/PA):  31.3 %

Trevor Story 2016 Fly Ball Ratio (FB/Balls In Play):  47.1 %

Trevor Story 2016 Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio:  23.7%

Trevor Story Home Splits:  .313/.393/.693

Trevor Story Road Splits:  .235/.292/.454

WHY TREVOR STORY WILL HAVE TO REGRESS AND WHY BRIAN SMITH WILL HAVE TO MAKE PEACE WITH THAT:  DISCUSSION

Firstly let me discuss that after looking through the numbers, I cannot definitively present an argument that Trevor Story is awful.  Which is A SHAME because it would have made for a more fun article.  And because this article is mostly to push Brian’s buttons I didn’t really include many positive stats up there in the data (we live in a post-facts world) but on the positive side Trevor Story hits the ball hard as shit, a 44.9% hard hit percentage second only to David Ortiz in all of baseball (scaled to a minimum of 400 PAs).  He also rarely hits the ball “softly” with a “Soft%” of only 14.3%, good for 26th best in baseball.  So yea he will probably be fine, whatever.  ENOUGH PRAISE.

Young Trevor will have a hard time duplicating his hot start to last year because anybody would because that hot start was really really hot.  Even if we are to assume that the thumb surgery has done nothing to his power in the short-term (not necessarily a given), his power to begin last year was unsustainable and in fact failed to sustain.  Trevor’s ISO was a bonkers .435 in April before dropping down to .196 in May (think George Springer and Ian Kinsler for the entirety of 2016, so still very good), rising back up to .235 in June (Trout, Cano, Carpenter etc. so REALLY GOOD) and rising even higher to .338 in July (think nobody at all because that can’t last for a full season, Ortiz had a .308 and he was a freak).  Pretty much everyone has this volatility but pretty much nobody expects Trevor Story to ISO close to .300 again, early projections have him around .217.

Next we have a couple of things that all work in tandem here:  BABIP, K%, FB%, HR/FB ratio.  A bunch of FANCY PANTS NEW AGE stats that some of our league’s more Goose Gossage-y owners will turn their nose at, that I will now use to annoy Brian.  Story’s K% of 31.3% was 5th most in baseball² when scaled to 400 PAs, that number should and could come down a bit but will probably not come down toooo far given his extreme pulling fly balls approach.  This should put a bit of a ceiling on the ole’ batting average, and that ceiling he probably reached last year (.270-.275ish).  Early projections expect him at about .260 this year and if you ask this troll I would cap him at about .250.  Story’s BABIP is certainly a bit on the high (read: lucky) side but for a man that hits the ball as hard as he does that can sometimes be understandable.  Where it CANNOT be understandable is when a man hits that many balls in the air, and that many of those balls in the air somehow find holes.  Trevor Story hit about HALF of all of his balls in the air in 2016 and about HALF of those found the seats, making him some sort of bizarro tiny white version of Chris Carter.  Which is all good and fine I GUESS, but Chris Carter also had a BABIP of .260.  As he should have, and kinda as Trevor Story should have.  Guys like Brandon Belt and Freddie Freeman are able to run high BABIPs with high FB percentages but that is a function of their high LD%, as line drives are far more likely to fall in for hits than your standard “fly ball.”  Trevor Story’s LD% is 34th in baseball (Freeman 1st, Belt 2nd) i.e. nothing to write home about IPSO FACTO LOWER BABIP IN 2017.

²Just for fun here’s your top 5:  Miguel Sano (36%), Steven Souza Jr. (34%), Chris Davis (32.9%), Chris Carter (32%), and Story (31.3%).

So after all of this we are left with but one simple conclusion:  Trevor Story is a fucking fraud.

MooniniteZ 2017 Trevor Story Projection:  .236/.307/.444, 22HRs, 70Rs, 80RBIs, 24 doubles, 2 triples, 10 steals.

WHY TREVOR STORY WILL HAVE TO REGRESS AND WHY BRIAN SMITH WILL HAVE TO MAKE PEACE WITH THAT:  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like to acknowledge that I don’t care about hurting the feelings of Banana Slugs management.

WHY TREVOR STORY WILL HAVE TO REGRESS AND WHY BRIAN SMITH WILL HAVE TO MAKE PEACE WITH THAT:  LITERATURE CITED

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12564&position=SS

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=12564&position=SS&season=2016

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/theres-already-been-more-than-one-trevor-story/

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=2&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d

Evidently almost exactly 3 months ago Lobman promised some vague “things” that would be announced “by the weekend”.  But like his daughter will soon learn, Lobman is an unreliable deadbeat who can’t be trusted to follow through on the things he says.  So we will call those “things” still in Limbo.

MOVING RIGHT ALONG, the year 2016 is now mercilessly behind us.  And what a hideous year, perfectly summed up by the fact that Heroy was finally able to get out of his own way long enough to capture his first Backyard Championship.  CONGRATS TO HIM AGAIN.  And now, I will point out the very obvious weakness with our current defending champion heading into the 2017 season aka THE INAUGURAL DYNASTY SEASON.

The Trout Fishing Club has for years boasted a strong roster, hence the whole “won the championship” thing.  But even our league’s best champions of years past are not immune to criticism (except possibly the 3-peat champion 3PO squad that beat this very Heroy back in 2013).  In this team’s case, their greatest weakness heading into 2017 is THE HOT GARBAGE PITCHING STAFF.

First there’s the rotation…….yessss the rotation, once anchored by Jose Fernandez…… just realized there is a boating pun in there NOT INTENDED…..but anyways yea he is dead now.  Boat related.  Cocaine related.  A Scarface-ian cautionary tale that has left the OGTFC rotation somewhat BEREFT of talent.  Then there’s the bullpen, which to be honest isn’t THAT terrible.  But it also isn’t THAT not terrible, and he only has 3 players in it, and fuck him.  Let’s go through his entire (current, always time to make a move Gregory 😉 ) pitching staff one by one and point out why they probably suck:

The “Rotation”

Jose Fernandez –  See above (is dead).

Tyler Glasnow –  Tyler Glasnow is the first of a repeating theme here, that theme being “young pitcher may put it all together but may also not put it all together.”  Nobody has a crystal ball, and fantasy baseball is a lot like gambling in many ways, but at the same time I do in fact own a crystal ball and Glasnow walked about 5 batters per 9 for the entirety of last year (AAA + MLB) so I can tell you for a fact he will not put it all together.

Lucas Giolito  – Giolito’s stock plummeted so swiftly within the Nationals organization that it cost him plus Reynaldo Lopez plus the Nats’ 2016 first round pick just to acquire Adam fucking Eaton.  NEED I SAY MORE (won’t put it all together).

Julio Teheran – Julio Teheran is a guy that people have been looking to as a guy that can put it all together, and maybe you look at his breakout in 2014 and/or his solid season last year and note that he’s just shy of his 26th birthday and say “HEY that young guy has put it all together.”  Well I am here to tell you that he hasn’t.  Both of those years he ran an unuuuuuusually low BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play, a measure of how often non-HR batted balls fall for hits) in the .260s.  League average these days is about .300, anything lowers tends to be mostly a function of luck maybe a function of a good defense behind you; in 2015, when he ran a BABIP of .288 his ERA snuck back above 4.  FURTHERMORE his LOB% (Left on Base %, the percentage of baserunners a pitcher strands over the course of a season) has been a tad high (77% last year, league average is around 70-72% and pitchers above or below that number tend to regress to the mean).  Ergo facto Teheran’s mediocre 2016 should regress to the mean a bit in 2017 ergo facto WILL NOT PUT IT ALL TOGETHER (had to really work for that one).

Aaron Sanchez – Sure….SURE everyone thinks he had a great year last year and deserved Cy Young recognition and yadda fucking yadda but RIDDLE ME THIS….if he’s so great why did he spend the majority of 2015 pitching out of the bullpen like some sort of schlub?  I will tell you why:  because he has not. And will not.  Put it all.  Together.

Kenta Maeda – Do not eeeeven get me started on this guy.  The king of the 5 and a third outing, is what this guy is.  And an (allegedly) 28 year old rookie I mean what exactly is that all about?!  Fishy.  Won’t put it all together.

Michael Wacha – Michael Wacha had a 5.09 ERA last year and it is not my job here to point out reasons why that would be a misleading figure, it is my job here to note that is the ERA of a young man who has not/will not put it all together.  THE PROOF IS IN THE PUDDIN’.

Gerrit Cole – What makes a great pitcher?  Is it things like stats and numbers?  Is it the pitcher’s arsenal?  His fastball velocity?  Pitch movement?  Probably maybe it is some of these things, but what really makes a great pitcher is where they choose to slot you into the rotation at the beginning of the season.  Gerrit Cole pitched the FIFTH game for the Pirates last year.  FRANCISCO LIRIANO PITCHED OPENING DAY.  Sounds to me like if a Jeopardy question states “this young Pirates righty obviously has not and shan’t not put it all together” your answer should be “Who is Gerrit Cole.”

Garrett Richards – Had “stem cell treatment” cuz he was too puss to undergo TJ surgery, which I can only imagine will ultimately be a mistake.  Don’t count on this fella, OGTFC fans(s)!

Tyson Ross – Don’t count on this fella either!  Had that weird thoracic outlet surgery and waited til October to have it, and also probably throws more sliders than the human arm will allow.  Which is a shame because I am a fan (not so much of a fan that I would trade anything of value for him HEROY, nobody wants to trade for this guy, please do not send people trade offers with this guy).

The “Bullpen”

Tony Watson – Tony Watson might very well be a serviceable closer for the Pirates, but they also maybe wanted to trade him at some point so MAYBE NOT.  I like my closers to K at least 8 per 9 and Tony fails to measure up.  Also, amongst pitchers with 15 or more saves last year, only Jake McGee and Tony Cingrani had a worse FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, FUCKING GOOGLE IT STATS CLASS IS OVER) than Tony’s 4.37.  Translation:  “Pfft.”  And also “MEH.”

Seung Hwan Oh – Ohhhhhh, Oh.  He actually had a really good year and I would have a hard time badmouthing him because I am a fan but uhhhh, YOU ARE OLD OH.  That should do it.

Francisco Rodriguez – Francisco Rodriguez is even older than Oh and also has the advantage of being far worse as a player.  Sure he saved 44 games for the Tigers (DO IT AGAIN YOU WON’T) but he also just barely scraped above 8 Ks per 9 and had an ERA above 3.  Who wants an ERA above 3 from a closer.  Nobody that’s who.

Fourth Reliever – OH WAIT THE OGTFC DO NOT HAVE A FOURTH RELIEVER AT PRESS TIME.

Sure the OGTFC can hope for young pitchers like Wacha, Giolito, Glasnow, and Cole to make leaps and there’s hope that Aaron Sanchez can build on a surprisingly strong season, but the reality is that this staff has a lot riding on young pitchers “putting it all together” and young pitchers sometimes take fucking forever (or don’t at all) to “put it all together”.  But yanno maybe he’s hoping Garrett Richards and Tyson Ross come back right as rain, or maybe he just plans on sweeping hitting cats and catching a few breaks.  WHO FUCKING KNOWS.  The point is I won’t stand for repeat champions that aren’t Odom/me and thanks to the fragility of life and the volatility of young pitchers it is very possible I won’t have to.