Trade Review: Holiday Edition

(Note: This isn’t holiday related in any way, shape, or form. I just wanted to continue to wage war on Christmas by saying Holiday. Carry on)

From the desk of Sean “Hannity” Dochney: 

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Trade Reviews from October to December

By Sean Dochney

 

Sean #2 is back again to give his opinion on the trades that went down from October until now.  I know this is what everyone has been eagerly waiting for since the last time I dabbled in the blog, so without further ado…..

Barnegat Banana Slugs receive AJ Minter and Mike Soroka

Bellcrest Park Mooninites receive Marwin Gonzalez and Mitch Garver

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AJ Minter – P ATL

24 years old

2017 Stats – MLB 15 IP, 3.00 ERA, 26 Ks, 15.6 SO/9, 1.2 BB/9

Minors (A-, A+, AA, AAA) 24.1 IP, 3.33 ERA, 11.1 SO/9, 4.4 BB/9

Possibly a nice little high minor holds guy for the beginning of next season.  Had a nice debut in a small sample size.  His K rates and Walk rates from his first cup of coffee may not be sustainable as evidenced by his minor league numbers, although he still had very good K rate in the minors.

Mike Soroka – P ATL

20 years old

2017 Stats – (AA) 11-8, 153.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 125 Ks, 7.3 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9

This is a young arm that I personally like.  Soroka is a former first round pick who was one of the younger players in the Southern League last season, and pitched very effectively.  His K rates lead a lot to be desired, but he is still young and learning how to pitch.  Seems to have a ceiling of a solid mid rotation starter.  Will he be a fantasy stud?  Probably not, unless he increases his K rates, but he will be a solid option to have.  You all love your comparisons, so let’s say Kyle Hendricks potential, and if you don’t like that comp, then don’t ask next time (Looking at you other Sean).

Marwin Gonzalez – LF, SS, 1B, 2B, 3B HOU

29 Years Old Opening Day

2017 Stats – .303/.377/.530, .907 OPS, 67 Runs, 34 2Bs, 23 HRs, 90 RBIs, 8 SB

What a breakout performance by this guy.  Set career highs in just about every offensive category, and will carry position eligibility for 5 different positions heading into next season.  I get the feeling last season will be the best of his career, but there is still plenty of value in this guy if he can replicate those power numbers with all that position eligibility he possesses.

 

Mitch Garver – C MIN

27 Years Old Opening Day

2017 Stats – 46 Abs .196/.288/.348, 3 3Bs

Minors – (AAA) 88 Games, .291/.387/.541, .928 OPS, 29 2Bs, 17 HRs, 45 RBIs

Not so young catching prospect that still has 84 at bats of high minor eligibility.  Had some real good numbers in his 88 games in the minors last season, especially the power numbers.  We will see if that translates over to the Bigs.  Not a bad flier to take here if he is getting early season at bats for the Twins.  To be honest, I don’t know what the Twins depth chart at catcher looks like today, and it is also not worth my time to look up, but we will say maybe this guy can provide a little bit of value in the Backyard.

 

DOCnalysis (It’s almost like an analysis but better because it’s my opinion)

Marwin Gonzalez is the best player right now and Soroka is no slam dunk to be a fantasy stud, so we will say Sean wins this trade.  But who knows, if Marwin goes back to his 2015 or 2016 self, then he gets dropped and is nothing more then a streaming option.  If that’s the case, then Soroka will end up being the best player in this deal.  Either way, not a deal anyone was wowed by.  Could be a good case of Salty Smitty selling Marwin Gonzalez at his peak though, so I like it enough for both sides.  Salty Smitty is a nickname that might stick after the latest controversy after the referendum, I hope he doesn’t take me to seriously when I say this.  I encourage him to change his name to this on GroupMe, at least for times he is frustrated with the league or me.  Bitter Brian would also work.

 

Lacey Township Backdoor Sliderz receive Robbie Ray and Royce Lewis (Rights)

Point Loma X-Rays Receive Marcel Ozuna

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Robbie Ray – SP ARI

26 Years Old

2017 Stats – 15-5, 162.0 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.72 FIP, 218 Ks, 12.1 SO/9, 3.9 BB/9

News flash, Robbie Ray is a stud for fantasy.  Man, I love those Ks.  Two straight seasons at 218 Ks is nice to think about moving forward for the young starter.  I am a little concerned about the innings and if he will ever push 200 innings.  I am also not in love with his walk rate, but hey no one is perfect, not even me.  He averages under 6 innings per start, so that is not great, but he will still get his QS.   There are some red flags associated with Ray, especially in an age where pitchers make their living on the DL.  But whatever, fuck it, my pitching sucked at times last year and I really like those K rates.

 

Royce Lewis – SS MIN

18 Years Old

2017 Stats – (Rk and A) 54 games, .279/.381/.407, 54 Runs, 8 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 4 HRs, 27 RBI, 18 SB, 3 CS

First overall selection in the MLB Amateur Draft, but 10th overall selection in the draft that really matters (All Star Break Draft).  Way to small sample size to really care about his numbers, but I would say it was successful.  Seems like a prototype “Rays Ways” guys with his speed, and hopefully there is some power there as well.  He was taken first overall in the draft for a reason by people who know a lot more about baseball then us.  There is good value in this guy, even if it takes years for him to make it to the Show.  We all know how much Dochney likes his teenagers (Prospects! Get your heads out the gutter!), so he doesn’t mind being patient with this guy, and conveniently the minors slots just expanded.

 

Marcel Ozuna – LF STL

27 Years Old

2017 Stats- .312/.376/.548, .924 OPS, 93 Runs, 30 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 37 HRs, 124 RBI

Marcel Ozuna had a great season last year and is one of the better young sluggers in the game.  Ozuna made his second all star team last year but boy this felt like his true breakout campaign that included a lot of career highs.  He is not hitting in that Miami lineup anymore, but he will still have plenty of RBI opportunities in St. Louis.  His OBP kind of came out of nowhere and I think it will drop a little bit.  He did have a career high BABIP at .355, which ranked 9th in the league.  This is awesome, but will he keep this up after a .296 BABIP in 2016? I don’t have the answer, probably why I traded him.  I do think he is capable of duplicating 60 XBH and 100 RBI, and I would guess Odom would be very ok with that.

 

DOCnalysis

Well I always want to side with myself when writing about my trades, but having a little trouble on this one.  I think Odom and I both sold high on young guys who had stellar seasons.  Will Ray keep up his sub-3 era? I am going to say very unlikely.  Will Ozuna have a .370 OBP with 120 RBI?  I am guessing he won’t do that either.  Royce Lewis was the kicker for me to accept this deal, but that doesn’t mean I won this deal.  I will say Odom won this because I find hitters more valuable and the injury risks associated with pitchers scare the shit out of me.  Good job Odom.

 

Bellcrest Mooninites Receive Aroldis Chapman

Point Loma X-Rays Receive Justin Smoak and MacKenzie Gore

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Aroldis Chapman – CP NYY

30 Years Old

2017 Stats – 22 saves, 3.22 ERA, 2.56 FIP, 50.1 IP, 69 SO, 12.3 SO/9, 3.6 BB/9

Chapman is an elite reliever (and elite wife beater), we know he has been for quite a while.  Last season was somewhat of a disappointment to his own standards last year, but he is still very good, and will be closing for a very good team that just injected more power into their lineup.

 

Justin Smoak – 1B TOR

31 Years Old

2017 Stats – .270/.355/.529, .883 OPS, 85 Runs, 29 2Bs, 1 3B, 38 HRs, 90 RBI

Breakout performers on the move have been the theme of offseason trades, and the theme continues with Smoak.  The most impressive thing to me about his 2017 is the drop in K %, which sat at 20.1%.  In 2016 that K % was 32.8%.  I have no idea how this would explain his increase in isolated power, or the 24 more bombs he hit, but I was impressed anyway when I came across this stat.  Will Smoak keep up his breakout?  I am skeptical, but I get the feeling Odom cares a lot more about MacKenzie Gore in this trade anyway.

 

MacKenzie Gore – SP SDP

19 Years Old

2017 Stats – Rookie Ball 0-1, 21.1 IP, 1.27 ERA, 34 Ks, 14.3 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9

Why would Odom want a guy that doesn’t have a single win in his entire professional career, fucking terrible!  Obviously just kidding, talent is oozing out of the number 4 overall draft pick in the most recent MLB Amateur Draft.  Looks like he was only allowed to go 3 innings in each start of the extremely small sample size of his professional career.  The youngster will get a larger body of work next year, and the hope is the high Ks will follow him as he goes up the chain.  This guy has an extremely high ceiling for Odom’s now home town San Diego.  I hate comps, but let’s compare him to – ehhh –  I don’t know Robbie Ray, who Odom just traded.
DOCnalysis

Chapman is such an elite reliever that it looks like he had a bad season last year.  Maybe Yankee fans are just spoiled and overreact about this guy, maybe he is starting to flame out a bit as he ages.  Either way I would love to have Chapman on my roster next year.  I don’t believe in Smoak, but I certainly believe in Gore, and I don’t care if that is an inconvenient truth for some of you (see what I did there?).  Smoak could easily hit waivers by midseason, and we will not see Gore for years, so I guess I will side with Sean receiving Chapman here as the winner, for now (see 2-year rule).

 

Point Loma X-Rays Receive Nicholas Castellanos and Jay Bruce

Q-Tip City Morning Wood Receive Evan Longoria, Adam Duvall and 4th pick ASB

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Nicholas Castellanos – 3B DET

26 Years Old

2017 Stats – .272/.320/.490, .811 OPS, 73 Runs, 36 2Bs, 10 3Bs, 26 HRs, 101 RBIs

Hey, solid year Castellanos, the 10 3Bs shocked me, but I guess it is spacious up there in Detroit.  He is still young and was a big prospect few years ago, and the hope is he can build off last season.  Castellanos is solid moving forward, and a good replacement for Longoria in Point Loma.

 

Jay Bruce – RF FA

31 Years Old

2017 Stats –  .256/.324/.508, .832 OPS, 82 Runs, 29 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 36 HRs, 101 RBI

The one-dimensional free agent did what he does year in and year out, which is provide power.  Odom will gladly take that power on his roster, and we know exactly what the consistent Bruce provides.

 

Evan Longoria – 3B SFG

32 Years Old

2017 Stats –  .261/.313/.424, .737 OPS, 71 Runs, 36 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 20 HRs, 86 RBIs

Little shocked Odom traded his boy here, but boy was it time to trade him after a down year.  Odom will hold his head high that Longoria was on his championship roster, but it was time to move on.  2016 was a great season for Longoria, so it is not out of the question he bounces back in 2018, but I do believe his best days are behind him, especially now that he is playing his home games in San Francisco.

 

Adam Duvall – LF CIN

29 Years Old

2017 Stats – .249/.301/.480, .781 OPS, 78 Runs, 37 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 31 HRs, 99 RBIs

I like Adam Duvall, even reminds me a lot of Jay Bruce.  The power numbers are there to make a difference, but the OBP numbers suck and will probably stay that way.  Let’s see what I wrote about Duvall last time I contributed to the blog, which may have been in like I don’t know September.

Duvall is underrated in this league because his OBP sucks.  But OBP is just 1 category, and Duvall helps a lot in the counting stat categories.  He may not be sexy, but he instantly becomes the X*Rays top slugger on his roster.  And Odom won the league (albeit controversially) while having the 9th ranked OBP in the league.  Adam Duvall is no fluke either, this is the 2nd year in a row he is a full-time starter, and the 2nd year in a row that he will have over 30 2Bs, 30 HRs, and 100 RBIs.  Duvall is good, and plays in the hitter friendly confines of Great American Ballpark.  He will be 29 for most of next season as well.  Contrary to popular belief, he is not the same player as teammate Scott Schebler.  Duvall is a good power bat who will keep benefitting from hitting behind the Walking Red, which guarantees Duvall to have more and more RBI opportunities.  (Whatever Duvall been slumping and moved down the lineup and is not batting behind Votto right now, don’t ever fact check my claims!)

(He didn’t quite get to those 100 RBI)

 

DOCnalysis

Duvall and Bruce kind of cancel each other out in my mind.  Castellanos might be better than old man Longoria moving forward, but I don’t know, maybe Longoria goes back to 2016 form and is better.  I like that Shane thought about the future and got an ASB draft pick here, so I will side with Shane in this deal since the players are close to each other talent wise.  Odom did unload an aging player in Longoria, so I do like that, but not sure he needed to give up the draft pick to do so.  YES, I VALUE DRAFT PICKS AND WILL NOT OVERLOOK THEM IN MY WRITINGS.  Don’t care if these draft picks are years away from fantasy relevance, I am a firm believer in always restocking your pipeline and acquiring up talent, even if that talent is simple trade bait.  This is more true to me now that we have 10 minors slots.

 

Astoria Isotopes Receive Stephen Gonsalves

Ocean Gate Trout Fishing Club Receive 6th draft pick in Spring Draft

 

Stephen Gonsalves – SP MIN

23 Years Old

2017 Stats – (AA, AAA) 9-5, 3.27 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 110.0 IP, 118 Ks, 9.7 SO/9, 2.5 BB/9

Solid pitching prospect, K rates were a little better in minors then I thought and walk rate is solid.  Should debut in Minnesota this season, and time will tell as to how smooth a transition that will be.

 

DOCnalysis

This was a move Heroy made to position himself in the upcoming Spring Draft.  We will hold judgement on the deal until we see what Heroy does, because I do think there are more exciting prospects available in that draft when compared to Gonsalves.  With that said, Gonsalves will presumably be making and impact quicker then whoever is taken in the Spring Draft.

 

Ocean Gate Trout Fishing Club Receive Josh Hader, Kyle Hendricks, and 5th Spring pick

Lacey Township Backdoor Sliderz Receive Gregory Polanco, Steven Matz and 6th Spring Pick

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Josh Hader – P MIL

24 Years Old

2017 Stats – 12 Holds, 2.08 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3.03 FIP, 47.2 IP, 68 Ks, 12.8 SO/9, 4.2 BB/9

AAA Stats – 12 Starts, 5.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 52.0 IP, 51 Ks, 8.8 SO/9, 5.4 BB/9

The curious case of Josh Hader.  He had high K rates but troubling walk rates.  He was lights out coming out of the pen last season as a rookie, but was not so good as a starter in AAA.  Looking at the numbers, looks like those control issues may keep him in the bullpen and out of the rotation, but I would expect he gets a shot to be a starter again at some point.  Will he be successful is the big question though?  He might be destined for a role in the bullpen.

 

Kyle Hendricks – SP CHC

28 Years Old

2017 Stats – 7-5, 3.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.88 FIP, 139.2 IP, 123 Ks, 7.9 SO/9, 2.6 BB/9

I really like Kyle Hendricks.  He does not possess elite K numbers, and I think he gets overlooked a lot because of that.  But he has been pitching so well the last few seasons and is a guy that will pick up QS, low era, and wins for a very good Cubs team.  Without great K numbers though, a bad month might mean he hits the waiver wire and bounces around as a streaming option.

 

Gregory Polanco – RF, LF PIT

26 Years Old

2017 Stats – .251/.305/.391, .695 OPS, 39 Runs, 20 2Bs, 11 HRs, 35 RBIs

Polanco had a good 2016 that the young outfielder looked like he was going to build on heading into 2017.  Things did not go according to plan and injuries slowed him down greatly.  The once top prospect still has plenty of talent, and the hope here is he hasn’t had his true break out yet.

 

Steven Matz –  SP NYM

26 Years Old

2017 Stats – 2-7, 6.08 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 5.05 FIP, 66.2 IP, 48 Ks, 6.5 SO/9, 2.6 BB/9

Not going to waste my time talking about Matz because I already dropped him.  His numbers and peripherals were terrible last year in an injury riddled season, which seems to be a Mets theme for as long as I can remember.

 

DOCnalysis

Well I like Polanco the most in this deal, but he has a lot to prove still.  Hendricks has probably proven himself to be the most polished in the deal, and Hader still has plenty of upside if he can get those control issues fixed a bit.  I’ll side with Heroy as the winner of this deal right now, but that can change in my mind if Hader stays in bullpen and Polanco builds off his 2016 season.

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Trade Review: Holiday Edition

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