OFFSEASON TRAAADE REVIEWS: MID SEPTEMBER ISH THROUGH OCTOBER EDITION

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The lack of analysis on this one has gone on LONG ENOUGH (not that there’s any real analysis below)

 

 

 

CHRISTMAS COMES EARLY TO THE BACKYARD, AS I HAVE EMERGED FROM A BRIEF HIBERNATION TO FEED THE FLAMES OF WINTER MEETINGS BY ANALYZING DEALS WE DID LIKE THREE MONTHS AGO.  AND EVENTUALLY SOME MORE RECENT ONES.  NEW FORMAT AS WELL, FOR THE MILLIONTH TIME. HEADING INTO 2018 WE ARE WORKSHOPPING MONTHLY TRADE REVIEWS WHERE EVERYTHING GETS NOTED, BUT ONLY THE TOP TWO OR SO TRADES IN A GIVEN MONTH GET SOMETHING APPROACHING “IN-DEPTH” ANALYSIS………
SO LETS TRY THAT NOW WITH MID SEPTEMBERI-SH THROUGH OCTOBER AS A GUINEA PIG, TO BE FOLLOWED BY NOVEMBER THROUGH DECEMBER. SHALL WE???? WE SHALL….

TRADE ROUNDUP:

 

                             NOTES  
  Sat, Oct 28
7:17 PM
BPMZ traded Mitch Keller, Pit SP to XYZ XYZ traded Mike Clevinger, Cle RP to BPMZ X-Rayz prrrrrobably won here. I mean almost definitely, but great hair on that Clevinger.
 Sat, Sep 23
2:45 AM
T traded Jorge Mateo, Oak SS to XYZ XYZ traded Matt Olson, Oak RF to T Isotopes do a good job of replacing the Rhys man.
  Fri, Sep 22
5:17 PM
RCBD traded Sean Newcomb, Atl SP to SAD! SAD! traded Sean Manaea, Oak SP to RCBD I don’t remember what this was but I think we all lost as a league here.
 Fri, Sep 22
4:31 PM
SAD! traded Clint Frazier, NYY CF to XYZ XYZ traded Raisel Iglesias, Cin RP to SAD! The OGTFC finally acquiring the closer I didn’t want to trade to them.
 Fri, Sep 22
3:19 PM
BPMZ traded Raisel Iglesias, Cin RP to XYZ XYZ traded Willy Adames, TB SS to BPMZ This was the moment the MooniniteZ officially had too many MI prospects.
 Fri, Sep 22
1:15 PM
BPMZ traded Andrew McCutchen, Pit CF to rmac
BPMZ traded James Paxton, Sea SP to rmac
rmac traded Kyle Seager, Sea 3B to BPMZ
rmac traded Tim Beckham, Bal SS to BPMZ
rmac traded Michael Wacha, StL RP to BPMZ
I AM SO ASHAMED OF THIS PARTICULAR TRADE.  See more below.
  Fri, Sep 22
11:14 AM
rmac traded Matt Kemp, Atl RF to XYZ XYZ traded David Price, Bos SP to rmac HOW MANY FUCKING PITCHERS IS ENOUGH RYAN?
 Mon, Sep 18
9:43 PM
T traded Cody Bellinger, LAD 1B to BPMZ
T traded Scott Kingery, Phi 2B to BPMZ
T traded Rhys Hoskins, Phi 1B to BPMZ
BPMZ traded Nolan Arenado, Col 3B to T THE BIGGEST BLOCKBUSTER THIS LEAGUE HAS EVER SEEN. Not sure if the new dynasty format encourages or discourages the trading of “star player” types but fuck y’all y’all soft is what I think about that.
Mon, Sep 18
11:03 AM
WOOD traded Whit Merrifield, KC 2B to BBS
WOOD traded Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tor RF to BBS
BBS traded Starling Marte, Pit LF to WOOD
BBS traded Tyler O’Neill, StL LF to WOOD
Just wanna note that Vlad Guerrero Jr. was like a THROW IN on this deal, whereas Ronald Acuna was previously traded for 3 guys.

 

 

 

Should probably get it out of the way now that there’s A GOOD CHANCE I am missing some draft pick maneuvering up in there, because of course I am, but that’s your fault for thinking I give a fuck about your draft picks maneuvering.  That being said I’ll try and ‘member draft pick maneuvering for any deals I highlight, and in the future I’ll try and get them into the roundup. For this round of the roundup, I don’t ‘member…..

 

 

 

(Or I just won’t highlight deals where draft picks were probably involved.  MOVING ON)

 

There was enough wheeling and dealing in this stretch where I am going to cover not one or two but three deals, two of which involved myself.

 

TRADE #1 (9/18/17):

WOOD traded Whit Merrifield, KC 2B to BBS
WOOD traded Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tor RF to BBS
BBS traded Starling Marte, Pit LF to WOOD
BBS traded Tyler O’Neill, StL LF to WOOD

NOTES/MAJOR LEAGUE COMPS:

 

WHIT MERRIFIELD, had himself a revelation of a season.  32 doubles, 6 triples, 19 dongs 34 SBs…. showed a bit on the basepaths in the minors but the dongs came outta nowhere, and even with those likely regressing if he keeps it up on the basepaths and keeps churning out the other XBHs he is a bona fide stud in this format.  Love me some Whit…..

VLAD GUERRERO JR., just tossed in the deal here as if he isn’t in the conversation for top prospect in all of baseball right now and as if he isn’t THE PROGENY OF THE GREAT VLADIMIR GUERRERO HIMSELF.  Vlad Jr. is not quite 19 but is going to end up being really really good and DIDN’T DESERVE THIS. Vlad had a .409 OBP in A ball last year.  Major League Comparison:  Hanley Ramirez or David Ortiz or Albert Pujols or something like that.

Vlad’s Recent Prospect Rankings:   

Baseball America  –   2

Baseball Prospectus – 13

MLB.com – 4

 

STARLING MARTE   is a cheater, but also a guy who was expertly marketed by the Slugs as a “20/20” type even though he simply lucked into 19 HRs LIKE ONE FUCKIN TIME and is probably more of a 15 dongs in a great year type. He can still run a pretty good bit so one would think he has the chances to put up a Whit Merrifield-esque season with less power 😉

TYLER O’NEILL I am certain was considered to be a better prospect at some point, now he is a guy that gets traded midseason to the Cardinals for Marco Gonzalez. Strikeout prone but power to all fields seems to be the book, and there’s worse books out there than that certainly. Fangraphs recently ranked him as the Cards 7th best prospect (FV 50) and labeled him a future “average regular” so SURE let us go with that. Average regular in this man’s future. But also Tyler hit 31 HRs last year in just shy of 500 ABs so maybe we are all selling him short, as I will do now. Major League Comparison:  Brett Lawrie.

Tyler’s Recent Prospect Rankings:   

Baseball America  –   CAN’T FIND EM

Baseball Prospectus – CAN’T FIND EM

MLB.com – 87

 

ANALYSIS/THE PICKING OF THE SIDES:

 

Honestly I would have paused at giving up Merrifield straight up for StarMar, so to THENNNN throw in Vlad Jr. and merely take back Tyler O’Neill….ugh. Vlad Jr. most certainly felt like the kinda guy you gotta hold onto if you’re this particular franchise, and if you’re giving him up he’s not just casually tossed into a trade he is the centerpiece of said trade. NOT YOUR BEST MOVE Q-TIP CITY, WHICH IS SAYING SOMETHING……if it wasn’t for me giving them stud pitching prospects for closers I just don’t know where that franchise would be. Probably about where they are now.   Side I Side WithBarnegat Banana Slugs

 

 

 

 

 

 

TRADE #2 (9/18/17):

 

T traded Cody Bellinger, LAD 1B to BPMZ
T traded Scott Kingery, Phi 2B to BPMZ
T traded Rhys Hoskins, Phi 1B to BPMZ
BPMZ traded Nolan Arenado, Col 3B to T

AKA THE BIGGEST TRADE THIS LEAGUE HAS EVER SEEEEEEEEEEEN

AKA   ;(

 

NOTES/MAJOR LEAGUE COMPS:

 

CODY BELLINGER, prior to having just a TERRIBLE time picking up breaking balls in the World Series (McCullers has a good curve), had himself a year last year. Unanimous ROY for the NL, 39 HRs, yada yada yada. Only 22 years old and 5 months as of writing this, and the MooniniteZ are banking on him being a reallll cornerstone for many moonz to come.

SCOTT KINGERY is the forgotten man in this deal but the MooniniteZ hope that won’t be the case for long, as he is KNOCKIN ON THE DOOR of the majors after posting 18 HR/19 SB in 69 games at AA and following that up with 8 HRs/10 SB in 63 games at AAA. The power came out of nowhere to make the Phillies dream of 20/20 but who knows if that is for real, wheels have been there for a while so you can maybe settle into more of a 10-15/30 type. The Phillies are currently frantically shopping their middle infielders partly because they know Kingery will be ready by May or June the latest. Major League Comparison:  I’m going Jean Segura BECAUSE I DON’T SEE COLOR, and because all you read is Chase Utley and that is the laziest goddamn thing.

Scott’s Recent Prospect Rankings:   

Baseball America  –   52

Baseball Prospectus – 50

MLB.com – 50

 

RHYS HOSKINS was famously RIDICULOUSLY hot at the start of his career, helping to carry the X-Rayz to the BCS title prior to being famously dropped as punishment for misgivings. 18 HRs in 50 games, cooled off a bit after swatting 11 in his first 22. MooniniteZ scouts have privately conceded they think he will be a better player than Bellinger in this format, AND NOW IT HAS BEEN PUBLICLY CONCEDED. Drinking the Rhys Kool-Aid and it is tasting delicious.

NOLAN ARENADO what needs to be said really. Top 5ish player in fantasy, top 10 absolutely, 130 133 130 are his RBI totals for the past three seasons. He is very good and I don’t want to talk about him too much.

 

ANALYSIS/THE PICKING OF THE SIDES:

 

This absolute BLOCKBUSTER clearly hinges pretty prominently on the development of the two talented rookies, as we all know what Arenado is and he will continue to be that. If you’re the MooniniteZ here you’re trading  one HR/RBI machine for what you hope will develop into two HR/RBI machines, you’re also banking on Scott Kingery being a legitimate 20/20 threat to really ease the sting of Nolan’s absence from your life. If you’re the Isotopes you likely viewed this as somewhat of a no-brainer, maybe you didn’t believe in Rhys one bit and maybe you think Bellinger levels off. One team got a top 10 fantasy player in 2018 absolutely, the other hopes it grabbed two inside the top 25. And Scott Kingery.  Side I Side WithMINE

 

 

 

 

 

TRADE #3 (9/22):

 

BPMZ traded Andrew McCutchen, Pit CF to rmac
BPMZ traded James Paxton, Sea SP to rmac
rmac traded Kyle Seager, Sea 3B to BPMZ
rmac traded Tim Beckham, Bal SS to BPMZ
rmac traded Michael Wacha, StL RP to BPMZ

 

NOTES:

 

ANDREW MCCUTCHEN  arrived in MooniniteZ camp last offseason with everyone doubting his ability to be a top fantasy contributor once again, and through May he was kinda proving everyone right. But then June and July hit and with it he went on a reallll tear and he ended up with some solid numbers (28 HRs, 94 Rs, 88 RBIs, 11 SBs  maybe this is a bit better than “solid”).  Now somebody tell Ryan he won’t have RF eligibility I don’t have the heart to break it to him…..

JAMES PAXTON, yet another season of flashes of brilliance surround by DL stints. When he is on he can be as good as anybody, as evidenced by his career high 10.32 K/9 last season. But he has a penchant for ending up on the DL during playoffs time and the MooniniteZ already had Lance McCuller soooooo……jk there really isn’t any good justification for him being involved in this deal, except that Ryan likes the Mariners and I just want my brother to be happy…..

KYLE SEAGER is also a Mariner but the TR TBD traded him away so ownership perhaps doesn’t like the Ms as much as I thought, perhaps they just liked Paxton cuz he is good. BUT SEAGER WAS ONCE GOOD, last year a “down year” by most accounts but he still ends up with 27 HRs 88 RBIs. Gotta pull back a bit on the fly balls going forward and I think he has a nice opportunity to rebound a bit in the OBP cat, Nolan Arenado he is not but a solid 3B he is….

TIM BECKHAM was like one of the better hitters in all of baseball last August, but so was Jorge Polanco and so was Eugenio Suarez so WHAT DOES THAT TELL US NOTHING (I really like Eugenio though). Beckham is a former number one pick as we all know and he has SQUANDERED most of that talent but still will be heading into his age 28 season here, a chance for growth now that he’s broken free from the Rays but also a chance he sucks and I drop him. He had 22 dongs last year which feels like his ceiling.

MICHAEL WACHA is just consistently MEH, just MEH numbers across the board last season over 30 starts.  8.58 K/9 will play in Bellcrest Park but THERE IS MORE TO PITCHING THAN Ks, even though Ks are the only things I discussed of the two pitchers in this section. Wacha’s numbers were mostly the same in both halves which is good since his rep has been that of a fader down the stretch. Won’t turn 27 until July so maybe he breaks out and I timed this right, also maybe he sucks and I cut him around the point in time where I’m gonna need to cut a pitcher or 3.

 

ANALYSIS/THE PICKING OF THE SIDES:

 

QUITE POSSIBLY, this is my least favorite trade of mine of like all time. Here’s why….. I can see Cutch and Seager cancelling out or very nearly cancelling out (Look at the last two years and TELL ME I AM LYIN, numbers similar last season and Seager’s superior in ’16). HOWEVER I am then left to contend with having traded James Paxton, frustratingly beautiful James Paxton, for Tim Beckham and Michael Wacha. Now Tim Beckham had his hot streak last August and maybe he flourishes in a full season in Bmore yada yada but there’s also a good chance he is terrible and gets dropped once one of my eleventeen middle infield prospects shows up. And Michael Wacha threw the ball pretty hard last year (95.6 avg fastball according to FG, compared to 96 for Paxton) but let’s be honest that is about where the comparisons with James Paxton end. Pax can be a top 10 pitcher if he can stay healthy for once in his goddamned life, with Wacha the upside just prrrrrrobably isn’t there at this point. And he arguably isn’t much of a better bet to be pitching during the Backyard Postseason and I will probably drop him for not being James Paxton at some point.  Side I Side WithCan’t even say mine, it’s The TR TBD here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MERRRRRRRRRRY CHRISTMAS, YOU GET THIS PIECE OF SHIT REVIEW FOR CHRISTMAS IS WHAT YOU GET.
ALSO EXPECT A NOVEMBER/DECEMBER REVIEW TO FOLLOW
ALSO EXPECT THE TROLL SERIES TO MAYBE RETURN IN 2018 PROBABLY
ALSO EXPECT A BUNCH OF REALLY BAD ATTEMPTS TO FINE TUNE THESE TRADE REVIEWS BEFORE I AM SATISFIED WITH THE END RESULT (one where they get written far, far quicker)

ALSO EXPECT RHYS HOSKINS TO BE FAR BETTER THAN YOU ALL THINK HE IS GOING TO BE…..SO………..

 

 

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OFFSEASON TRAAADE REVIEWS: MID SEPTEMBER ISH THROUGH OCTOBER EDITION

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